Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multistate models: a comparison to capture–recapture approaches

Wildlife populations consist of individuals that contribute disproportionately to growth and viability. Understanding a population's spatial and temporal dynamics requires estimates of abundance and demographic rates that account for this heterogeneity. Estimating these quantities can be difficult, requiring years of intensive data collection. Often, this is accomplished through the capture and recapture of individual animals, which is generally only feasible at a limited number of locations. In contrast, N‐mixture models allow for the estimation of abundance, and spatial variation in abundance, from count data alone. We extend recently developed multistate, open population N‐mixture models, which can additionally estimate demographic rates based on an organism's life history characteristics. In our extension, we develop an approach to account for the case where not all individuals can be assigned to a state during sampling. Using only state‐specific count data, we show how our model can be used to estimate local population abundance, as well as density‐dependent recruitment rates and state‐specific survival. We apply our model to a population of black‐throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) that have been surveyed for 25 years on their breeding grounds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The intensive data collection efforts allow us to compare our estimates to estimates derived from capture–recapture data. Our model performed well in estimating population abundance and density‐dependent rates of annual recruitment/immigration. Estimates of local carrying capacity and per capita recruitment of yearlings were consistent with those published in other studies. However, our model moderately underestimated annual survival probability of yearling and adult females and severely underestimates survival probabilities for both of these male stages. The most accurate and precise estimates will necessarily require some amount of intensive data collection efforts (such as capture–recapture). Integrated population models that combine data from both intensive and extensive sources are likely to be the most efficient approach for estimating demographic rates at large spatial and temporal scales.     

Dawn Singing Intensity of the Male Brownish‐Flanked Bush Warbler: Effects of Territorial Insertions and Number of Neighbors

The dawn chorus is a period of peak singing activity of many songbirds. Numerous studies have sought to understand this widespread phenomenon, and many hypotheses have been proposed to explain the dawn chorus. The social dynamics hypothesis proposes that dawn singing plays an important role in the announcement of territorial occupancy and the regulation of social relationships between males; it predicts that the dawn chorus vocal behavior varies with changes in social relationships. In this study, we tested the influence of territorial insertions and the number of neighbors, on the intensity of the brownish‐flanked bush warbler (Cettia fortipes)'s dawn singing. We found that simulated territorial insertions (playback) caused the males to increase their dawn singing significantly the next day, and males that had many neighbors exhibited more intense dawn singing than did males with few neighbors. Our study provides evidence that dawn singing plays an important role in the announcement of territorial occupancy and the regulation of the social relationships between the males.     

How to Spot a Stranger's Egg? A Mimicry‐Specific Discordancy Effect in the Recognition of Parasitic Eggs

Egg discrimination by hosts is an antiparasitic defence to reject foreign eggs from the nest. Even when mimetic, the presence of brood parasitic egg(s) typically alters the overall similarity of all eggs in a clutch, producing a discordant clutch compared to more homogenous clutches of composed only of hosts’ own eggs. In multiple parasitism, the more foreign eggs are laid in the nest, the more heterogeneous the overall clutch appears. Perceptual filters and recognition templates cannot explain the known pattern of lower rejection rates of foreign eggs in multiple vs. single parasitism. We therefore assessed the role of clutch homogeneity and manipulated the colour of one or more eggs in the clutches of great reed warbler (Acrocephalus arundinaceus) hosts of common cuckoos (Cuculus canorus). Varying the colours of both the majority and the minority eggs caused predictable shifts in the rejection of the focal egg(s), and ejection rates of the minority egg colour consistently increased but only when it belonged to a more mimetic egg colour, relative to the less mimetic colour of majority eggs. The results imply that in addition to sensory filters, and template‐based cognitive decision rules, discordancy‐based rejection is affected by the overall clutch appearance and interacts with specific colours varying in the extent of mimicry, to contribute to the recognition decisions of hosts to reject parasitic eggs.     

Potential Role of Spruce Budworm in Range-Wide Decline of Canada Warbler

ABSTRACT The Canada warbler (Wilsonia canadensis) is one of many common neotropical migrants whose populations are in decline across their range. Influences of habitat loss and degradation on breeding or wintering grounds have been postulated as possible causes, but few empirical data exist to support a specific cause. Based on previous studies linking abundances of Canada warbler and spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana), we hypothesized that the Canada warbler may be influenced by a persistent decline in spruce budworm throughout the bird's breeding range, a hypothesis that has received little attention. This hypothesis makes 5 predictions: 1) budworm outbreaks and warbler detections should be spatially and temporally coincident; 2) the relationship between Canada warbler and spruce budworm outbreaks should be similar to relationships for other warblers known to be spruce budworm associates; 3) the relationship should be stronger than for warblers lacking an association with spruce budworm; 4) because temporal trends of both spruce budworm and Canada warblers have varied throughout Canadian provinces, declines in Canada warblers should be seen only in provinces where spruce budworm also declined; and 5) variation in Canada warbler abundance should reflect variation in supply of preferred habitat for the spruce budworm if habitat rather than budworm abundance is the key. Our analyses supported predictions 1–4, suggesting that Canada warbler may be even more closely associated with spruce budworm than are known associated species, a phenomenon noted in the literature but previously unexplained. Prediction 5 was not supported, because budworm habitat (area of mature and older balsam fir [Abies balsamea] and white spruce [Picea glauca]) remained constant in Ontario while warbler abundance declined. Although the correlative nature of these results precludes inference of a causal relationship between the declines of the Canada warbler and spruce budworm, we postulate that potential links may exist directly, where spruce budworm outbreaks provide elevated levels of insect prey items for breeding Canada warblers, or indirectly through changes in forest structure and composition following outbreaks. These results have implications when considering long-term trends in Canada warbler populations, because it may be impossible to alter population trends for species linked to the timing and magnitude of spruce budworm outbreaks.     

Microsatellite DNA markers for delineating population structure and kinship among the endangered Kirtland's warbler (Dendroica kirtlandii)

We document the isolation and characterization of 23 microsatellite DNA markers for the endangered Kirtland's warbler (Dendroica kirtlandii), a Nearctic/Neotropical migrant passerine. This suite of markers revealed moderate to high levels of allelic diversity (averaging 7.7 alleles per locus) and heterozygosity (averaging 72%). Genotypic frequencies at 22 of 23 (95%) markers conformed to Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium expectations, and no linkage disequilibrium was observed in blood samples taken from 14 warblers found on the wintering grounds in the Bahamas archipelago. Multilocus genotypes resulting from this suite of markers should reduce the amount of resources required for initiating new genetic studies assessing breeding structure, parentage, demographics, and individual‐level ecological interactions for D. kirtlandii.     

河北塞罕坝褐柳莺繁殖期鸣唱变化

2017年5至8月,在河北省塞罕坝录制了80只繁殖期雄性褐柳莺(Phylloscopusfuscatus)的鸣唱,对其鸣唱句型和句子参数以及音节类型的变化进行了定量分析。褐柳莺鸣唱的两种主要句型——S-song和V-song,前者(F_(3,75)=17.983,P 0.05)和后者(F_(3,75)=17.983,P 0.05)的使用频次在不同月份间均存在显著差异。S-song的使用频次多于V-song的使用频次,且二者在繁殖季的变化表现出相反的趋势:S-song使用频次在5月和8月较高,在6月最低;而V-song的使用频次却是在6月达到最高值,在5月和8月较低。不同月份鸣唱句子最高频率(F_(3,75)=4.841,P 0.05)、句子频宽(F_(3,75)=3.814,P 0.05)和句子峰频率(F_(3,75)=3.793,P 0.05)均存在显著差异。通过80只个体的2 400个鸣唱语句得到了65种音节类型,其中,80%以上的音节类型在每个月中均有分布,但每月音节类型数存在显著差异(F_(3,75)=5.456,P 0.05)。音节类型数量随繁殖季的变化表现为,7月褐柳莺鸣唱中具有最多的音节类型数(19.79±3.69),5月和8月音节类型数较少,8月最少。     

Does acoustically simulated predation risk affect settlement and reproduction of a migratory passerine?

Nest predation is one of the most important drivers of avian life history evolution and population dynamics. Increasing evidence suggests that birds are able to assess nest predation risk and avoid settling in high‐risk areas to increase their reproductive performance. However, the cues used for settlement decisions are poorly known in most species. Population sizes of the migratory wood warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix are characterized by strong annual fluctuations, which are negatively correlated with the number of forest rodents. Wood warblers might avoid rodent‐rich areas to reduce predation risk arising either from rodents, from rodent‐hunting predators attracted to such areas or from predators not linked to rodents. To evaluate these hypotheses, we conducted a large‐scale field experiment to test whether wood warblers avoided settling in plots with high predation risk simulated by broadcasting vocalizations of rodents or predators. Moreover, we tested whether reproductive performance varied in relation to simulated predation risk. Settlement patterns did not differ between plots with rodent, predator and noise control treatments. Likewise, measures of reproductive performance did not seem to differ across treatments. Thus, the broadcasted vocalizations of rodents and predators did not seem to be perceived as threat by wood warblers. Alternatively, the species might use other cues than those presented here, either other acoustic cues, visual and/or olfactory cues or a combination of cue types during settlement. Further experimental investigations to pin point cues and senses relevant for settlement decisions in wood warblers and birds in general are needed to better understand their life history and population dynamics.     

Predation on artificial avian nests is higher in forests bordering small anthropogenic openings

Habitat edges alter the diversity of avian communities and are often associated with higher rates of nest predation. However, most previous studies on habitat edges have been conducted along long linear corridors or at the transition between large field and forest patches in agricultural systems. Less is known about predation rates when the habitat edge is the result of a small interior forest opening. We assessed predation rates on artificial nests mimicking ground and shrub nesters in Northern Michigan forests perforated by small clearings used previously for oil and gas extraction. Nests were placed at varying distances from the edges of these clearings, and in similar spatial arrangements within unfragmented interior forest plots. Predation rates increased in forests near edges, but significant impacts were limited to shrub nests. Markings on predated clay eggs indicated that the type of predation also differed. Scratch marks were the most prevalent egg indentation, but eggs with poked holes were twice as common near the forest edge. The increase in the number of poked eggs suggests that a higher density of avian predators occurred in forests near an edge. Predation rates at forest edges did not vary by distance from the forest edge. Surveys of the avian community revealed differences between edge and interior forests: American Crows Corvus brachyrhynchos and Blue Jays Cyanocitta cristata, two species known to predate bird nests, were more common near edges. Our results suggest that small forest openings alter the avian community and may adversely impact reproductive output in some species. If the alteration of these processes results in population‐level impacts, small forest perforations should be avoided when possible and reforestation of abandoned well‐pads should be encouraged.     

Modeling the consequence of increased host tolerance toward avian brood parasitism

Avian brood parasites greatly reduce the reproductive success of their hosts. Empirical studies have demonstrated that some hosts have evolved defenses against parasitism like an ability to recognize and reject parasitic eggs that are dissimilar to their own eggs. Detailed mechanisms of how hosts recognize parasitism still remain unknown, but recent studies have shown that the host’s recognition, in many cases, is based on discordance of the eggs in a clutch, and that hosts are more error-prone when the nest is multiply parasitized, i.e., hosts tend to accept more multiple parasitism than single parasitism. In an area in Hungary, the great reed warbler Acrocephalus arundinaceus, one of the main hosts of the common cuckoo Cuculus canorus, is heavily parasitized and the parasitism rate has been kept at quite a high level for decades. Previous mathematical models suggest that such a high parasitism rate can be maintained because the focal host population behaves as a sink where few hosts can reproduce but immigration from outside replenishes the loss of host reproduction in the sink population. Here, we explore the consequences of the increased host tolerance towards multiple parasitism which has been overlooked in the previous studies using a simple model. Our model analysis shows that the increased host tolerance can dramatically contribute to both the parasite abundance and the parasitism rate being kept at a high level. We suggest that such a host behavior, combined with host immigration, can be an important factor responsible for the observed severe parasitism.